Report of the Energy Permanent Monitoring Panel

by the Chairman
Richard Wilson
Mallinckrodt Research Professor of Physics
Harvard University

at the 30th meeting on Planetary Emergencies, Erice 2003

Introduction and Summary

Last year the PMP agreed on a focus or theme for studies by PMP members in the year 2003/2003: "Lack of energy in developing countries and regions is a Planetary Emergency". One of the basic References is a report of the international energy agency (IEA) on "Energy and Poverty" as part of World Energy Outlook 2002. We do not believe that we have exhausted this topic so will continue this theme for next year. This report will discuss first the progress and discussions that have taken place, followed by some discussion of other matters.
There were many E mail exchanges and reports presented at the PMP meeting in Erice on August 19th, at the plenary meeting on August 22nd, and over many Sicilian meals and bottles of wine. I will take my task as Chairman to include an attempt to put all these thoughts into perspective and that will inevitably be biassed by my own views. However I have started a web page for the PMP which is now accessible with the domain name http://energypmp.org on which the original reports to the PMP or the main conference, papers, references and comments may be posted.
Most religions insist that the rich help the poor because it is the right thing to do: others argue that it is correct pragmatically to achieve prosperity oneself. The PMP merely address how and when to do so. One of the problems we faced first is that the PMP members are almost all from rich countries. Yet the needs of the poor countries are (probably) best understood by representatives of the poor countries. For that reason we tried to get scientists from these poor countries to join us, both at the special PMP meeting on August 19th and for a plenary session on August 22nd. In this we had limited success.

It was our colleague PK Iyengar from India who proposed our focus and theme. But he has had a recurrence of heart problems and his physician tells him not to travel. The Chairman tried to find a good substitute, but the substitute was out of India and the Italian consulate in the US told him to apply for his visa in India! Hopefully this ridiculous behavior of the Italian visa authorities will change.

Jose Goldemberg from Brazil is a leader at thinking about helping the third world. He as at the International School on Energetics on "Energy Demand and Efficient Use" in Erice in 1980 and would have been delighted to return. But (so he told me) his visit to Erice, where he lectured on "Energy Problems in the Third World", persuaded him to go into politics and his political duties prevent him coming.   (Note that his lecture is available in the Erice volume of the school published in 1991)

Daniel Kammen from the University of California at Berkeley has done a lot of work on helping developing countries, particularly Kenya, to use renewables. His experience and wisdom on how to surmount the traps and pitfalls in working with developing peoples would have been invaluable to us. But a high fever that developed at the last moment prevented him from coming.

We are very fortunate to have with us Dr Hisham Khatib from Amman in Jordan who is Honorary Vice President of the World Energy Council. Yesterday, August 22nd, he gave us a fine talk on the subject.

I had invited Dr Xiao Dadi of China, because of China's remarkable success in energy development. He had to cancel at the last moment, but Dr Mark Levine of Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory valiantly stepped into the breach and told us yesterday, August 22nd, of China's remarkable achievements.

Dr Adnan Shihab-Eldin from Kuwait is not from a developing country but is from a third world country. He has also been at the School of Energetics in Erice 23 years ago, and would love to be back. Indeed he talked on "Energy Needs of the Less Developed Countries". But he is now Research Director of OPEC, and at this moment has especial duties which prevent him coming. I hope that the explicit reason will be made clear to all at the forthcoming OPEC meeting at the beginning of September.
In addition to Dr Mark Levine two Americans on the PMP have reported to us on end use efficiency; Dr Arthur Rosenfeld of California Energy Committee and Dr William Fulkerson. Their full reports to the PMP meeting are on the website, but some of their message they bring is incorporated below.

We also had a report in the August 19th PMP meeting by Joseph Chahoud on Syria's Energy Plans and from Dr Diap of Senegal (who reported for Dr Vivaragent in Dr Vivargent's regrettable absence) The abstracts are also listed below with the full reports on the website

The Chairman cannot resist quoting from memory an American, Benjamin Franklin, who was interested in this subject 225 years ago. "Wherever I have traveled, I find that when men have neither coal, nor wood nor turf they live in miserable hovels and have nothing comfortable about them. But when they have an adequate supply of fuel, and the wit to use it wisely, they are well supplied with necessaries and live comfortable lives". I note the two phrases of italics which would now be phrased: energy supply and end use efficiency. Both are important

Dr Khatib told us of the great need for energy; what it has done so far for the third world and what it can continue to do. This emphasized the supply side.   Dr Rosenfeld empasized, with his example of refrigerators, how the US has increased end use efficiency in the last 20 years.    Dr Levine yesterday also emphasized the end use side in the Chinese economy.    Dr Fulkerson went further and set out a model whereby developed countries can take positve action to help developing countries in improving end use.  The PMP will certainly be discussing this further over the next year.

The discussions have mostly centered around electricity use. This is because electricity is extraordinarily useful and as such is often the symbol for energy. Over the years many authors have identified three stages in improving the lives of people by electricity use.

Firstly when there is enough electricity for a 60 watt light bulb (20 watt with a modern efficient one) so that the family does not have to limit activities to daylight hours.

Next, when there is enough electricity to allow the use of small hand tools. I wonder whether at this stage we should now include enough electricity to obtain internet access and learn and teach the world.

Thirdly, when there is enough electricity for refrigerators, electric stoves, heaters, television sets "and all that jazz".

There are in the world 1.6 billion people without electricity. This is half the Indian population. No wonder Iyengar is interested! Figure 1 (figure 13.5 from the IEA Energy and Poverty report) describes a link between Poverty and Electricity Access. Electricity access seems to be related to the fraction of the population that lives on less than $2 per day. A physicist knows how to draw a straight line on such a graph and link the two. But even physicists realize that they don't know which comes first - the chicken or the egg. Does poverty cause a lack of electricity access? Or is a lack of electricity a cause of poverty? The PMP does not know but are devoting themselves to trying to help electricity access with the full realization that it is only a part of the problem.

Energy and GDP

People have looked at the relationship between Energy and Gross Domestic Product (often called Gross National Product in the USA) for many years. It is important, when discussing developing countries, to realize that Energy meant "Commercial Energy" and not the wood and turf (peat) (now called reneawables) collected by poorer peoples. Figure 2 shows one such relationship for years up to 1980, with projections beyond, from a IIASA report of the 1980s. The "conventional wisdom" before 1975 was that energy demand was directly proportional to GDP and Energy Demand would rise steadily with GDP and that a failure to meet this demand would result in a failure for GDP to rise. Indeed in the 1960s President John F. Kennedy called for a cheap energy policy to help developing countries. Oil prices and electricity prices were falling and were expected to go on falling. Few people (I was a crazy exception) would make investments in end use efficiency even with a 5 year estimated pay-back when in 5 years the price would go down. But in 1975 this changed and end use efficiency became important. The emphasis is now on the relationship of the ratio E/GDP with time or with GDP.  It was higher in developed countries and fell with time with a plateau in the 1960s.    It has fallen in the US since then largely due to energy efficiency improvements, some of which were discussed by Rosenfeld and Levine. This is reflected in the IIASA projections.  The Chairman has not seen this curve with the more recent data superimposed.    One notable point noted by IAASA is that  USSR (line II SU/EE on the graph) had values of E/GDP wich were 1 ½ to 2 times those of USA or Western Europe. This was widely attributed to a failure of "Centrally Controlled Economies" as opposed to "Market Oriented Economies".   China seemed to be going this path.    The chairman notes that the improvement in E/GDP in China since 1980 is still a result of "Central Control". But more intelligent "Central Control". Those who fear the "Big Brother" of George Orwell suggest that the mechanism by which China achieved this outstanding success may not be universally applicable.

How Can the World Help?

How can the world help the developing countries and regions to develop and in particular to make electricity and energy universally available? Can such help enable the developing countries to keep the E/GDP low and avoid the path taken by developed countries where E/GDP was high? Fulkerson, Levine and Rosenfeld insist that if we can do this,  we, and they, save money AND save adverse environmental impact. Without taking a poll of the PMP it seems that individual members are in full agreement.  

This is the point in the argument that the Chairmen regrets most the absence of PK Iyengar and others in third world countries. PK briefly described his views in E mails. The Indian Government notes the apparent connection between poverty and availability of electricity and wants to expand availability and quantity of electricity. The statistics are interesting.

In 1947 when the British rule ended, India generated only 5,000 MWe
In 2003 India generates about 100,000 Mwe. This is still only a few % of US use, with a much larger population and amounts to only about 100 We per person.

PK argues that a technical base exists in India for a rapid expansion of electricity production. There are experienced personnel for operation. Most hardware is now made in India. But, so PK says capital formation is the limit. What does this mean? The phrase is used in many ways. We believe that it means that India has no way of charging enough for electricity to get back the initial capital investment. There are political constraints.

India presently generated 35% of its electricity from hydropower, and plan a 70,000 MWe increase in 10 years. They have plenty of coal and lignite but this is of poor quality. This suggests to us that help for efficient electricity generation using conversion to gas with combined cycle generation may be important.    PK Iyengar notes that the Indian Nuclear Power program is now "mature". But he grumbles at lack of help from IAEA. He suggests (predicts) that in absence of competition from the "west"  Russia and China will dominate the nuclear power market. The Non-NPT countries (India, Pakistan and Israel) are not helped by the weapons states to develop nuclear energy.  PK also comments that there is too much attention to safety, to non-proliferation and so on. (Such complaints have also been made, particularly of over regulation) in the west.   The Chairman expects this lack of help will continue in view of the strong opinions about WMD from the developed world and in particular the weapons states.

Dan Kammen, who as noted above could not be present, is a well known proponent of the view that developing countries can be taught to use renewable sources of energy more effectively than in the past. He has shown that people can be taught to use solar ovens for cooking albeit with some problems of acceptance, and also suggests that photovoltaic (PV) electricity can be a vital source particularly to generate that first 60(20) watts that is so essential. PV can continue to expand certainly until an electricity grid arrives.     Kammen's points tend to get forgotten when E/GDP is plotted.  E usually means "commercial energy" and leaves out wood, and turf, and renewables used at the local level.  

The Chairman felt that there was a general consensus in the PMP to go beyond the traditional aid that the World Bank and US AID have given to developing countries in massive generation projects - of which the Three Gorges in China is perhaps the most obvious example (although not funded by the World Bank). Generation efficiency, Use of Renewables and End Use Efficiency must also be brought into play. This is harder. Unlike a big dam, it cannot just be put in position by a few engineers from "above" whether foreigners, or experts  from the same nation. It needs many people at all levels in the developing countries who are educated in these matters. Mark Levine pointed out in his talk and is proud of the education LBL has given and continues to give to those from developing countries. As the PMP develops its ideas further, this may well be a point that an "Erice Statement" and perhaps an "Erice conference" may be helpful.

Three Logical Problems:

In a setting where Dirac and Wigner have expressed their views, it seems desirable that attempt be made to relate one's recommendations to fundamental principles. Mathematicians might insist that one distinguish clearly between dependent and independent variables. Economists might argue that energy is only an "intermediate good". Indeed Admiral Zumwalt declared in 1973, in words apposite in 2003, that the purpose of nuclear energy is to power US nuclear aircraft carriers and submarines to defend the oil supply lines from the middle east! Adnan Shihab Eldin pointed out in a comment circulated before the meeting (and now posted on the website) that automatically calling expanded oil use  bad is illogical. With carbon sequestration what appears to be bad, may become good. Without clarity of understanding we might not have a clear, sustainable policy.

Cost Benefit Analysis (and Risk Benefit Analysis) can be used easily to make decisions on the most cost effective strategy, with a given technology.   It is far harder to use cost benefit analysis to discuss the benefits of a new unknown technology.  It is, in the US, conventional to talk about a "Market Economy" with little realization of what that means.  But a "Market Economy" is supposed to address the problem by providing an incentive for an enterpreneur to make money  by inventing a new technology, patenting it, and reaping millions of dollars.    There are many examples where this has proved inadequate and government action has been used in what is called "technology forcing".    Just to show Arthur Rosenfeld that he is not alone in requesting government action to perusade people to make money by using energy efficiently,   the Chairman lists 2 other situations. 
(i)  It has been clear since 1910 that the benefit in medical diagnosis of X rays far exceeds the hazards.  Few people took care to reduce the hazard even though it was possible, and even easy.   The X ray dose for a chest X ray 50 years later was still 900 millRem, but was reduced, by enectment and enforcement of standards,  within a few years by a factor of 100.
(ii)   Although  the fuel efficiency of automoblies can save the buyer money, the improvement in kilometers per gallon only came about with the adoption of a complex system of CAFE standards federally enforced upon the manufacturer.

The use of a " Market Economy" to get the most "bang for the buck" cannot work to get the best policy if::
(1) externalities are not included
(2) Consumers have inadequate information (including price)
(3) Societies do not find it politically possible to charge full price

There is inadequate agreement on costing these externalities which have been and will be extensively discussed at Erice such as: global warming, pollution, energy resource exhaustion,    nuclear proliferation, waste generation and disposal, etc. Societies have struggled to make sensible decisions when the full analytic procedure including externalities has not been accepted.  Should one in the (supposed) spirit of Dirac and Wigner try to logically relate these paths? The PMP has not yet addressed these problems in the formal way that the Chairman and at least one other member would wish. They remain problems for next year to which the Chairman intends to hold the noses of the PMP to the grindstone.  

Other Energy (Fuel) Sources

While it is not directly connected with help to developing countries we had reports on the status of fusion power. It was agreed that development is far off - 50 years at minimum, but they interested the PMP in the context of R and D funding noted below.
Similarly Dr Bob van de Zwaan talked about nuclear energy and the conclusions that seem important for the theme of the PMP are that:
there is adequate fuel supply for the onde through cycle for the foreseeable future (50 years)
recycle in a light water reactor is more expensive than once through
a breeder reactor is more expensive still.
While development of a breeder reactor might be a sensible long term approach for a developed country, it seems to have no place in the plans for a developing one.

R and D funding

The PMP completely agreed with the report of one of its members (Dr Bruce Starm) that the scientific community has failed to communicate effectively an appropriate valuation of energy R and D.   But the PMP as a whole has not discussed what, if anything, to do about it. For example how does one compare short term needs and long term needs. Fusion is an extreme example. Whether it will ever work or is ever economic is unclear. If it works it is extraordinarily attractive. But it has no short term potential. It cannot help developing countries (yet). But individual PMP members feel it is underfunded particularly in the US. Adequate (international) funding for fusion might include:
enough funds to build ITER
enough funds to keep one smaller machine (JET) going till ITER is finished.

Appendices

Appendix I   Summary of the fusion session in the Energy PMP, Erice, 19 August 2003
.
Prof. Palumbo, who was the director of the EU fusion programme for over 25 years, exposed his latest developments on determining optimized magnetic configurations. Starting from first principles he demonstrates that possibly only one magnetic configurations is able to stably confine a plasma. The work needs further developments and if the first findings can be confirmed, experiments could be initiated to verify the proposal.

Jef Ongena summarized recent progress in magnetic fusion research in Europe, mainly on JET (Oxford, UK), in preparation of ITER, the next step device after JET. He also summarized the present status of the ITER negociations.
1. JET has recently made several important steps towards ITER
A.    The baseline operational mode (the so-called ELMy H-Mode), has been further optimized by adapting the magnetic configuration towards higher triangularity. This results in a drastic increase in the plasma density (30%), without losing, but quite on the contrary, further increasing simultaneously the confinement time (10%). Also for the so-called operational modes, progress has been obtained, by optimizing the temperature profile (maximum closer to the optimal burn temperature, i.e. 200 million degrees, accompanied by a increase in size of the high temperature zone) and a further increase in the density. Both in the ELMy H-Mode and in the advanced modes, this has led to a drastic increase in the fusion reactivity of the plasmas obtained.
B.    Mitigation of heat loads on the first wall by creating a radiating boundary with well dosed injection of impurity gas (Ar). This mimicks the chromosphere of the sun : a hot centre accompanied by a colder plasma edge. The reduction of the temperature in the edge leads to a drastic lowering of the first wall temperature in JET (from 1000C to 200C) and will lead to a reduction of wall damage due to erosion, sputtering and sublimation.
C.    Increasing the pulse length of the fusion pulses. In JET, we have been able to run pulses in the divertor configuration up to 50s long. The divertor configuration is an elongated elliptical plasma cross-section, with open field lines at the plasma edge, in order to pump away impurities, and is the configuration foreseen for ITER. These JET pulses are the longest divertor discharges ever produced in a tokamak, and there is potential for even longer pulses in this configuration, well over a minute. This will allow to study the effect of long time wall and plasma constants, in preparation for ITER.
2. On Tore Supra, a French tokamak with superconducting coils, pulse lengths have been obtained up to 4 min 25s, in the limiter configuration (circular plasma cross-section). This is nearly half the pulse length as foreseen for ITER starting phase (500s). This has been obtained by applying non inductive plasma generation by means of the Lower Hybrid Heating System (GHz e.m. waves) and spontaneous generation of plasma current by the so-called ‘bootstrap’ current.

3. Status of ITER negoctiations and plans.
The ITER collaborative effort has recently been extended from the initially 4 to now 7 partners : Europe, Japan, Canada, Russian Federation, China, South Korea and USA. There are actually 4 sites proposed for ITER : Canada (Clarington near Toronto), France (Cadarache near Marseille), Spain (Vandellos near Barcelona) and Japan (Rokkasho in N-Japan). All sites have been assessed by a specialized team, and the final decision on siting for ITER is expected for the first half of 2004. A final international decision is expected in the first half of 2004, and once this decision taken, the construction of ITER will start, foreseen to take about 10 years. First plasmas on ITER are thus to be expected in 2014. JET can play an important role in optimizing and accelerating the high performance phase of ITER. In addition, JET would thus allow (i)  to maintain the advanced know-how in plasma physics needed to efficiently run a large tokamak like ITER, and (ii) to prepare a young and well experienced international tema ready to start ITER operations.

Prof. Miyahara (former director of the National Institute for Fusion Science, Nagoya, Japan) give an overview of progress on fusion in Japan and the position of Japan with respect to ITER. His conclusions are as follows :
1.    ITER is a nice project situated between the large tokamaks (TFTR in the USA, JT-60 in Japan and JET in Europe) and a real Thermonuclear Reactor. However, it requires large budgetary allocations in Japan to cover the cost of building the device and for plasma operations of ITER. This results in a reduced bugettary attention for other important work in fusion as the study of Helical Systems and the behaviour of Tritium in Fusion Reactor Materials. Prof. Miyahara expresses his worries that this budgetary conflict will introduce serious difficulties for the future sound developments towards fusion reactors.
2.    On the theory side, there are very important recent developments in the understanding of plasma physics, as recently documented by Dr. K. Itoh et al., in their review paper on “Theory of Plasma Turbulence and Structural Formation – Non linearity and Statistical View – J.Plasma Fusion Res. Vol 79, No 6 (2003) pp 608-624). According to their opinion, the subjects described in this article are usefull for ITER operations and the progress in the understanding of turbulence and formation of turbulent structures in plasmas illustrates the advancement of plasma physics as an important branch of modern physics.

Appendix 2. Energy Situation in West Africa
 Dr. Mbareck Diop for Marcel Vivargant

1. General Figures on ECOWAS. Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) is composed of 16 states (Benin, Burkina Faso, Cape Verde, Cote D'Ivoire, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Togo). The Regional population is estimated at 246.8 mil; Nigeria has 123 mil. Per Capita GDP is $306/yr.

2. Energy Overview Nigeria is the region's only net energy exporter, and its exports are enough to make the whole region a net exporter. In 2001 the region consumed 1.46 quadrillion btu (Quad) and produced 5.4 quad. Nigeria consumed .92 quad and produced 5.49 quad. Commercial energy resources in the region are primarily oil and natural gas, are concentrated in coastal and offshore regions. Electricity is provided by thermal (58.8%) and hydro (41.2%). Natural gas has the potential to take a more significant role in the regions energy sector as fields in Nigeria, Cote d'Ivoire and Senegal are developed. Due to the regions relatively small urban population (33.9%) and the lack of infrastructure, access to commercial energy sources is limited.

2.1 Petroleum. Nigeria, West Africa's only significant oil producer, lifted of 2.1 mil bbl per d in 2002, and has reserves of 31.5 bil bbl. This is 96% of the regions reserves. Smaller reserves are located in the Gulf of Guinea, in the Atlantic (offshore Mauritania and Senegal) and in landlocked Niger.

2.2 Natural Gas There are significant reserves of natural gas in West Africa. Field discoveries have been confirmed and reserves proven in Benin (43 BCF) Cote d'Ivoire (1.1 TCF), Ghana (840 BCF), Nigeria (124 TCF) and Senegal (106 BCF) , . West Africa contains approximately 32% of Africa's natural gas reserves. Nigeria lacks gas infrastructure and flares 75% of the gas it produces. In has a $3.8 bil LNG facility on Bonny Island, completed in 1999. The West African Gas Pipeline (WAGP) project is a 630 mile facility throughout West Africa, from Nigeria to Benin, Togo and Ghana. The $500 mil WAGP will initially transport 120 mmcf/d of gas to Ghana, Benin ad Togo beginning in June 2005. Gas deliveries are expected to increase to 150 mmcf/d in 2007, 210 mmcf(d in7 years and be at 400 mmcf/d when the pipeline operated at full capacity 15 years after construction. The pipeline is expected to save $500mil in energy costs for Benin, Ghana and Togo over 20 years (World Bank estimate) will foster associated industrial development and permit electric power development ($600 mil in development is expected for new and renovated power facilities). The WAGP may be extended to included Cote d'Ivoire and Senegal.

2.3 Electricity. West Africa's total installed electric generating capacity was 9.4 gigwatts (GW) in 2001. Generation was 33.8 bil kwh; Nigeria (14.6 bkwh), Ghana (8.8 bkwh) Cote d'Ivoire (3.0 bkwh) and Senegal (1.4bkwh) were the largest consumers. In 2000, 14 ECOWAS members signed an agreement to create a project to boost power supply in the region The West African Power Pool (WAPP) Agreement reaffirmed the decision to develop energy production facilities and interconnect their power grids. According to the agreement, WAPP will be accomplished in two phases and completed by 2005.

2.4 Development of River Basins in West Africa

2.4.1 Niger Basin Authority (NBA); the long term objective of NBA is to promote cooperation among the member countries and to ensure integrated development of the basin in all sectors through development of resources, notably in the fields of energy, water, agriculture, livestock, fishing, fish-farming, forestry, transport and communications and industry.

2.4.2 Organization for Development of the Giver Gambia (OMVG) The objectives of OMVG are: i)increasing power generation at competitive costs, ii.) Placing emphasis on development of agriculture; iii.) ensuring optimum management of natural resources of the three basins (Koliba/Corubal, Kayamba/Geba, and Gambia.

2.4.3 Organization for Development of the River Senegal (OMVS) OMVS was mandated to implement an infrastructure program for regulation of the river including antisalt protection, river transport, and power generation, and to contribute to integrated sectoral development in agriculture, transport and health fields in the basin area. The antisalt dam has been built in 1986 in Diama and the Ranantali dam was completed in 1988, with a hydropower station generating since 2001 800 GWh/yr shared by Mali (42%), Senegal (33%) and Mauritania (15%)

3. Conclusion. Globally, West Africa has an important energy potential, but Nigeria is the main producer and exporter of petroleum and gas. The WAGP will be a good step toward a more integrated energy system involving Nigeria, Benin, Togo, Ghana and Senegal. The challenge is to make more interconnections between Nigerian and other West African countries that suffer from energy shortages. Hydropower is located only in Ghana and the OMVS. High Hydro potential exists in the Cote d'Ivorie, in the Niger Basin, and the Gambia Basin, but needs to be developed and to be inter connected in the next decade.

Appendix 3A A GLOBAL PROGRAM FOR ENERGY EFFICIENCY IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
Mark D. Levine
Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory

Little progress has been made in the transfer of knowledge and market experience of industrialized countries to improve the energy efficiency of developing countries. This is a serious problem, for a variety of reasons. From the point of view of developing nations, energy efficiency can serve as an engine of industrial modernization. The diversion of capital resources into energy efficiency can enable investment in essential infrastructure and services, while maintaining or even increasing energy services. Such investment in energy efficiency is also a highly cost-effective way of improving the environment.

There are clear benefits to industrialized countries as well. The developing world will dominate energy growth in the foreseeable future, assuming that their economies achieve continued growth (as is widely expected). This means that most of the pressure on global energy resources - with oil of particular concern - will come from the growth of demand in the developing world. It also means that most growth of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions will be from the developing world. (IPPC results in the Special Report on Scenarios (2002) suggest that >80% of the increase in carbon dioxide emissions will come from developing countries over the next 50 to 100 years across a wide range of scenarios.)

If such expansion of energy efficiency in developing countries is so desirable (to both the developing and industrialized world), why does it not just happen? The simple answer is that markets and associated governmental policy systems work poorly in most developing countries most of the time. As such, there is no way for the private sector in advanced countries, or such as it is in most developing countries, to make a profit from large-scale investments in energy efficiency. Unless a solution to this problem is found, the world will suffer. There will be no way to reduce the growth of greenhouse gas emissions significantly, as energy efficiency is the only affordable way to do this on a massive scale in developing countries. As such, no control of future greenhouse gas emissions is possible until greenhouse gas free energy supply is widely available (not soon). Further, in the opinion of the author, improving energy efficiency is essential if the developing world is to advance their economic performance of a long period of time (i.e., sustainably).

This paper presents an approach to addressing this global problem on the scale that it deserves. The proposed program would substitute energy efficiency for half of energy demand growth in the developing world. As such it both recognizes the need for continued growth on the supply side in the developing world, while also stressing the major role that energy efficiency must play. The proposed approach involves a major coordinated effort in eight of the ten most energy consuming developing nations representing 75% of developing world energy consumption. This will cost $2B/year, to be allocated to (1) training, project management, and evaluation for energy efficiency projects and (2) institution building; development of pre-feasibility studies for energy efficiency projects and programs; and energy efficiency policy formulation and implementation in developing countries. The approach will create a new international center of learning and training on energy efficiency with a "student body" of approximately 1000 participants from developing countries. The primary objective of the $2B/year global program will be to attract $25B/year of private investment for energy efficiency    A program such as proposed is essential for sustainable economic development in developing countries and control of greenhouse gas emissions in the coming decades. A small program - just $2B per year - if implemented properly has the potential to make a large difference in addressing these problems.

Appendix 3B   Sustainable, Efficient Electricity Service for One Billion People
William Fulkerson and Mark Levine

Our purpose in this paper is to examine how electricity services can be brought to one billion people who currently have no access to such services. We postulate a 20 year goal, and further we require that the electricity should be sustainable with respect to climate to attract support from the developed world. We try to answer the questions: What is needed? How much will it cost? Who might pay? How important is efficiency?   We estimate that the customers for electricity will require of the order of 0.025kW/person or about 220 kWh/person/year if end use technology is efficient.

We assume the developed world might be willing to pay the extra cost of sustainable generation and the extra cost of efficient end use technologies compared to least first cost technologies. We assume that sustainable electric generation will cost of the order of $1000/kW more than non-sustainable generation. Further, we assume that the extra cost of efficient end use technology will be paid back in 2.5 years on average by the cost of electricity saved.

The developed world would need to spend about $88 /person broken down into $50 for sustainable generation and $33 for efficient end use technology. The total cost to provide electricity to the unelectrified 1 billion would be $88 billion spread over 20 years, or $4.15B/y for 20 years plus an estimated 15% more for training and institution development. This cost is about $12 billion less than for a system with sustainable generation but inefficient end use technology.We suggest that these incremental costs of sustainable electricity are borne by four equal partners. The United States, The European Union, Japan and OPEC. Each partner would pay $1.19B/y. 

Consumers of the electricity would pay on average approximately $14/person per year for electricity plus about $15/person per person per year for end use technology at the cost of the least first cost.   This would afford a family of 6 refrigeration, lighting, communications, TV and services for small motors like fans and sewing machines.   There are serious questions involving this scheme. Can a utility or electricity service organization make money on this subsidized system? Can a poor rural family afford $29/person per year? Can a consortium of partners be persuaded to pay for sustainable service? Can sustainability be maintained for a long period of time? The authors suggest it is worth finding out the answers to these questions.

Appendix 4:   Status of the Hydrogen Economy:
Does Hydrogen Have a Practical Future as a Transportation Fuel?
Carmen Difiglio, Ph.D., International Energy Agency

Mr. Carmen Difiglio showed that transport is largely responsible for world oil demand. Policies aimed at reducing problems from growing oil consumption therefore need to address motor-vehicle transportation. In the short-term, policies are needed to improve the efficiency of new vehicles, improve system efficiency and encourage the use of high-occupancy travel. But the inevitable high worldwide growth of motor-vehicle use may eventually require a more sustainable transport system that features near-zero carbon emissions from secure sources of energy.

To achieve this, there are now three known approaches: biofuels, electric vehicles and hydrogen-powered vehicles. Biofuels are important but are incapable of being supplied in sufficient quantity to replace petroleum in the transport sector. Past experiences with electric vehicles show that even significantly-improved electric vehicles cannot be expected to meet consumer needs. Hydrogen is increasingly seen as the next generation of motor vehicle technology as evidenced by product development in the motor-vehicle industry and major new government programs in the US, Japan and the European Union.

Difiglio outlined the energy use and carbon emissions for several motor-vehicle and fuel technologies including hydrogen, electric, biofuels, hybrid and conventional vehicles. He also provided 2020 cost estimates for several alternative technologies that can be used to produce hydrogen without CO2 emissions including gas and coal with carbon sequestration, several renewable technologies, and nuclear power. Difiglio showed, using expected future cost estimates, that hybrid and fuel cell vehicles would be a costly way to reduce CO2 emissions - two orders of magnitude higher than the economic incentives emerging from the Kyoto process.

Several challenges facing a transition to hydrogen were outlined including needed technology development on fuel cells, on-board hydrogen storage and hydrogen production approaches. Difiglio suggested that it would be difficult to supply the substantial quantities of hydrogen needed to displace a significant percentage of transport oil before 2050 unless carbon sequestration is applied on a large scale since only fossil fuels could achieve this at a reasonable cost. Any feasible increase in renewable or nuclear electricity before 2050 would be best used to reduce CO2 emissions in the power sector. Cogeneration of hydrogen in a high-temperature gas reactor (HTGR) was shown to be a promising but uncertain technology.

There would also be a difficult transition period in which there would be insufficient hydrogen refueling available to inspire consumer confidence and insufficient hydrogen vehicles to make the investment in hydrogen refueling equipment a reasonable business proposition. Substantial government intervention over a long period of time would be required to overcome this and other transition barriers. Nonetheless, increasing concern over global climate change could require that the future energy economy achieve extremely low net CO2 emissions. Widespread hydrogen use might be the only practical way to achieve this in the transport sector.

Appendix 5  Syria
Renewable Energy Master Plan  2001-2011
Joseph Chahoud

Secure and reliable supply of energy to the different sectors of the economy is on the main concerns of the government of Syria, being aware of the finite and limited conventional resources available. For Syria to move towards greater sustainability future energy developments must reduce expected GHG emissions; some reduction may be achieved through the use of renewable energy technologies. To this end, a Plan has been prepared in order to induce an increasing contribution from renewable energy sources in the national overall energy balance, thereby reducing dependence on fossil fuels and leading to environmentally sound and sustainable development.

The Plan has two main components: energy development program and accompanying policy measures. Energy development is predicated on a series of proposals referring to specific renewable energy technologies that fall into six categories: solar thermal, photovoltaic, wind, biomass, hydro, and hybrid systems. The accompanying policy measures are recommendations for Syrian institutions including the elimination of barriers to renewable energy like subsidies to conventional energy sector. Thus Syria will be more open to private investment in renewable energy.

RD & D, pilot projects, and bankable projects are three phases of the Plan, depending of the level of maturity and commercialization of the respective technologies. The RD & D program consists of 20 components, most of which focus on application systems and the others on system components. The overall cost of the RD & D program is estimated at $11 mil, two thirds of which goes to solar. Pilot projects involving 12 renewable energy technologies and systems are proposed with an overall cost of $90 mil, 80% of which will go to biomass projects and 15% to wind . Finally it is envisaged that 21 energy technologies and systems will reach commercial stage during the period. The financial resources that will be required for this stage will be about 1.36 billion, 44% wind, 22% for biomass, 18% for solar, 13% for hybrid, and only 3% for mini hydro that have minimal environmental impact.    By the end of the period of the Master Plan, the contribution of renewable energy technologies is estimated at more than 1 mil TOE, 4% of the total primary energy demand of Syria.

Economic analysis based on life cycle cost of each project as compared to similar costs for corresponding baseline technologies suggests that the renewable technologies will have an economic advantage as well as environmental and social benefits.