INDEX of all
files on this site
This informal
website is primarily for information and discussion
between the present members of the Energy PMP .
To post something on this
site, send it to the present webmaster at wilson5@fas
.harvard.edu. who hopes that in due course a more direct method will be
possible. I would prefer it in html, or in pdf formats, but any format
such as msword and power point presentation will be acceptable pro
tem. You will be able
to download them but not open
them on line.
THE MOST RECENT REPORT IS FIRST; earlier reports are at the end. BUT for a given meeting the reports are in order
Plans for
International Seminars on Planetary Emergencies
Erice, 18-26 August 2008
Overall Programme of Events
Welcome Dinner – Monday 18 August –
20.30
Permanent Monitoring Panel Meetings
– Tuesday 19 August – 09.30-19.00
Energy
- Pollution Limits of Development joint
discussions Paul A.M. Dirac Lecture
Hall - Patrick M.S. Blackett Institute
Information Security – Richard P.
Feynman Lecture Hall – Isidore I. Rabi Institute
Medicine; Climate; Mother &
Child; Statistics – Vaulted Rooms – Eugene P. Wigner Institute
Wednesday 20 August – Friday
22 August – 09.30-19.00
Energy - Nuclear Power, Present
and Future;
Introduction
Dr Richard Wilson
Harvard University, USA
Nuclear
Renaissance: anno 2008
Dr Frantisek Janouch
Sweden and Czech Republic
Nuclear
Power, Present and Future
Dr David J. Hill
Argonne National Laboratory, USA
Nuclear
Renaissance: Industrial Requirements for an integrated and sustainable
solution.
Dr Phillippe Gardaret
AREVA, France
Energy & Pollution - Resolving
the Nuclear Waste Issue on the Road to Sustainability;
Summary
Frank. L. Parker
Large
Radiation Accidents-Environmental and Medical Impoacts
R.M. Alexakhin
Russian Institute of Agricultural
Radiology and Agroecology, Obninsk, Russia
20
years
of Progress in Processing Nuclear Waste
James A Rispoli
Office of Environmental Management US Department of Energy
Climategy & Methodology
- Basic Theoretical Problems;
Food & Energy -
Sustainability of Biofuels;
Session Introduction: Current
Biofuel
Policies and Projected World-Wide Biofuels Growth
Dr. Carmen Difiglio
U.S. Department of Energy, USA
Habitat and Biodiversity Losses from
Biofuels
Professor G. David Tilman
University of Minnesota, USA
Biofuel Policies and the Food Crisis
in Developing Countries
Dr. Kwadwo Asenso-Okyere
International Food Policy Research
Institute, Ethiopia
Global
Policy Options for
Sustainable Biofuels
Professor Wally Tyner
Purdue University, USA
Climate
& Pollution - Airborne Particulates and Health Consequences;
Medicine & Climate - Global
Warming and Vector-borne Diseases;
Information Security – The Crisis
in Internet Security. Internet
security website
Homeland Defense vs. Homeland
Security - the big gap paper
power
point
Jody Westby
Esq., Cyber Risk Inc. USA
New
Challenges for IT-Security Research in ICT and Electronic
Identity Cards and Citizens’ Portals
Dr Ugo Helmbrecht
Federal Office for Information Security, Bonn,
Germany
Gian Carlo Wick Gold Medal
Award
World Federation of Scientists
General Meeting - Paul A.M. Dirac Lecture Hall
Saturday 23 August – 09.30-13.00
PMP and Working Groups Reports –
General Debate and Conclusions
Fulkerson, University of Tennessee EnergyPMP
report
Sunday 24 August – 09.30-19.00 -
Paul A.M. Dirac Lecture Hall - Patrick M.S. Blackett Institute
ICSC – World Laboratory Annual
Meetings –Associated Workshops –
June 7th 2006
Richard Wilson as he leaves for an
international risk analysis meeting
is increasingly upset with recent
international decisions
They are indeed indications of
Planetary emergencies
Please excuse him for "sounding off"
SCIENTIFIC
AND TECHNICAL INFORMATION IS IGNORED IN CRUCIAL DECISIONS
HERE ARE FOUR
WITH INTERNATIONAL RAMIFICATIONS
IRAQ WMDs - EITHER LIES OR STUPIDITY.
Take your choice
Iraq
had no nuclear weapons and few other WMDs.
Experts knew this. Either the
President deliberately misled the American people or he stupidly
ignored people who knew.
MISSILES NO DEFENSE
For 40 years it has been known that
antiballistic missiles are hard to make work and easy and cheap to
render useless.
Yet
the
US is planning to i nstall them in eastern Europe.
CORN BASED
ETHANOL DOES NOT STOP GLOBAL WARMING
It has been known for 30 years that it
takes almost as much carbon fuel to produce corn as in the oil the
ethanol saves.
It upsets the global food
economy.
Subsidies are counter productive.
yet on Thursday June 5th 2008 the Farm
Folly bill was passed by the US Senate
which perpetuated subidies for: (a) corn based ethanol
(b) food oil for diesel fuel
(c) and cotton
CARBON
as
it comes out of the
ground is easy
to monitor.
Yet politicians want to control emissions
sector by
sector with huge expense and inefficiency.
The Lieberman-Warner Bill is loaded with pork and may not pass.
But regulating carbon as it comes out leaves less room for
pork.
Politicians and financiers dont like it
There are many others of lesser
importance.
Wednesday June 4th 2008
Here are
two important papers about nuclear matters
Garwin's
invited lecture in Rome in May
2008
IAEA report on the future
of the
Agency
Monday
March 17th 2008
3 years ago we
tried to get Tom Shea to talk at Erice but he had to back out at
the last moment. He now has a new job as Director of Global
Nuclear Policy Forum in London and has a screed
he would like us to consider.
Saturday
March 15th 2008
The reports on the Potential for Low
Carbon emissions by Professor Julia King (King Review) on low -carbon
cars has now been released by the UK government
Part
I , the potential for CO2
reduction
Part
II. Recommendations for
Action
I note in particular:
"In the long term, carbon-free road
transport fuel is the only way to achieve an 80-90 per cent reduction
in emissions, essentially decarbonisation. Given biofuels supply
constraints, this will require a form of electric vehicle, with novel
batteries, charged by "zero- carbon " electricity oror possibly
hydrogen produced by zero- carbon electricity"
This makes our
recommendation for treating all non-carbon sources the same
particularly relevant.
In view of the fact that the summer 2007
meeting, and the December 2007 meetings specifically discussed the IPCC
report, I note the report
of the Heartland
Institute of February 2008 which disagrees with the
conclusions. I suggest that all members of the relevant
panels ead and be able to criticize that report when needed.
Friday
March 15th 2008
The article on nuclear power that I was
requested to write, and first presented at Erice 4 years ago has only
now been published. It can be downloaded
here in pdf format
Thursday December
20th 2007
Sunday
August 19th 2007
Energy
Permanent Monitoring Panel; Seminar on Planetary Emergencies;
joint meeting with climate PMP.
Monday
August 20th 2007 38th session of the
Erice International Seminar on
Planetary Emergencies ;
Plenary
Seminar (9.30-12.00)
0.
Welcomes
by: Franco Marini, President of the
Italian Senate, Welcome message sent by cable
Dr Ignazio
Sanges President National
Association of Arts and Sciences
1. Professor Antonino
Zichichi
Introduction
to the
38th
session
of the Erice International
Seminar
ENERGY & CLIMATE
: FOCUS: MANAGING CLIMATE CHANGE
2. H.E. Professor Jan Szycko, Minister of the Environment,
Warsaw, Poland
Combating
Climate Change: Land Use and Biodiversity - Poland's Point of View
3. Professor Yuri A.
Izrael, Institute of Climate Change and Ecology, Moscow, Russia
The
role of Stratospheric Aerosols in Antagonizing the Global Climate Change
4. Professor
Mikhail Antonowsky Carbon Dioxide Dicision, Institute of Global
Climate and Ecology, Moscow
Trends
of carbon
dioxide concentration since the industriual era and effect on global
climate change
5.
Professor Antonino Zichichi,
Meteorology
and Climate
Change: Problems and
Expectations
12.30 – 13.00
SESSION
N° 2
* Professor William A.
Sprigg, Dept. of
Atmospheric Sciences,
University of Arizona, Tucson, USA
Introduction – Climatological
Considerations
* Professor Arthur H.
Rosenfeld, California
Energy Commission, USA
Introduction – Energy
Considerations
General reference to
IPCC http://www.ipcc.ch
IPCC files may be downloaded here IPCC files here
13.00
-1400 SESSION No 3
Chairman A. Zichichi – Co-chair
Professor Willaim Sprigg
* Dr. Filippo
Giorgi, The
Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste, Italy, Physics of Weather and Climate,
IPCC Fourth Assessment
Report –
Summary and Key Messages
* Dr. Tim
Lenton, School of
Environmental Sciences,
University of East Anglia, UK
Tipping Points or
Gradual Climate
Change
FOCUS: MANAGING CLIMATE CHANGE –
MITIGATION OF GREENHOUSE GASES
Chairman A. Zichichi – Co-chair A.
Rosenfeld
16.00 – 19.00 SESSION
N° 4
* Dr. Peter Bosch, Netherlands Environmental Assessment
Agency, Bilthoven, The Netherlands
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report –
Summary and Key Messages
* Dr. Igor Bashmakov, Center for Energy Efficiency, Moscow,
Russia
The Three Laws of Energy Energy Transitions
* Professor Arthur H.
Rosenfeld, California
Energy Commission, USA
Opportunities
in the Building Sector
* Dr Carmen
Difiglio, U.S.
Department of Energy, Washington,
DC, USA
Reducing the Growth of Motor Vehicle
CO2 Emissions through 2050: Efficiency, Low-Emission Fuels
and Advanced
Technologies
Fuel Efficient
Transportation in Wyoming
* Professor Andrea
Contin, Department of Physics,
University of
Bologna, Italy
Biomass Energy from the Po River Basin
and Carbon Sequestration
19.00 Presentation of the "Gian Carlo Wick Gold Medal
2007" to Professor Andre Martin
Tuesday
August 21 2007
Plenary Seminar (9.30-19.00)
FOCUS: MANAGING CLIMATE
CHANGE
– FILLING THE GAP: GEO-ENGINEERING AND ADAPTATION
Chairman Tsung-Dao Lee – Co-chair A.
Rosenfeld
09.30 – 11.15 SESSIONS N° 5
and 6
* Dr. Michael MacCracken,
Climate Change Programs, Climate
Institute, Washington D.C.; USA
*
Dr. Ken
Caldeira, Global Ecology
Dept., the Carnegie
Institute of Washington, Stanford, USA
Geoengineering
the Arctic
* Professor William
Fulkerson, Joint
Institute for Energy and
Environment, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, USA
The
Role of Adaptation in Dealing with
Climate Change
Discussion
*
Professor Richard
Garwin, Summary
and review
12.00 - 13.00
SESSION N° 7
* Professor Richard Wilson,
Harvard University
The Bush-Putin
Disagreement: Some background on Anti-Ballistic Missile Systems ppt
file rtf
file
* Professor Richard
Garwin, IBM Watson Institute
Ballistic Missile defense deployment to
Poland and the Czech Republic
FOCUS: MANAGING
CLIMATE CHANGE
- DEBATE
Chairman Tsung-Dao Lee – Co-chair A.
Rosenfeld
16.00 – 19.00 SESSION N° 8
* Professor
Christopher Essex, University of Western Ontario
*
Professor Graeme Stephens, Colorado
State University
Model
Limitations
* Professor Garth Partridge,
University of Tasmania
Scientific
Questions behind the Arguments concerning the Robustness of Climate
Models
* Professor Anastasios
A New Theory on the Relation between ENSO
and Global Temperature
Wednesday
August 22nd 2007
Plenary session on other subjects not recorded here
SESSION No 9
* Professor
Frank Leon Parker, Vanderbilt University
Understanding
Energy Production Externalities
* Dr James Conca, New Mexico State University, Presented by Professor Paolo Ricci
Energy
and Radioactive
Waste Disposal in the Age of Recycling
Useful
report relevant to the discussions are added here
* IUGG report of July 2007
Mike
MacCracken's comments to Rep Dingell
Mike
MacCracken's comments on permits
IPCC
(2007) files here
Thursday
August 23th 2007;
Plenary Session, PMP Reports (9.30- 13.00)
*
Three proposed Resolutions. Proposed here but
modified
on Friday
Carbon Control
Urgent
Study of Uranium resources and costs
Adding
Geoengineering
Friday August 24th 2007 ;
Energy-Climatology Joint PMP Meeting (9.30-13.00)
An
open discussion on
“Managing Climate Change”
Discussion moderators: Bill
Sprigg and
William Fulkerson
Partcipants
The three resolutions proposed
on
August 23rd (links above) were discussed, modified and
approved. (reworded and approved by particpants by e mail
later)
Bruce Stram discussed a summary of the Stern
Review in the context of “tipping points.”
December 21st 2006
Special
Session in the Pontifical Academy of Sciences, Vatican
city
Presentation
of 2005 Erice Prize to Lord John Alderdice, Professor Andre Peterman
and Richard
Wilson
Talk
on Energy
Crisis or Environment Crisis by
Richard Wilson
Talk on
Non-Proliferation of Nuclear
Weapons by Richard Garwin
AUGUST 2006 MEETING
Permanent Monitoring Panel Meetings – Saturday 19 August – 09.30-19.00
Energy – Paul A.M. Dirac Lecture Hall – Patrick M.S. Blackett Institute
International
Seminar on Planetary Emergencies 2 sessions on Global
Nuclear Power Future: 20th August 2006
Introduction and setting the stage : Richard Garwin IBM Watson Lab
Monday 21st August -09.30 - 13.00
Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons
World Federation of Scientists General Meeting - Paul A.M. Dirac Lecture Hall
Wednesday 23 August – 09.30-13.00
Morning – PMP and Working Groups Reports – General Debate and Conclusions
June 15th
2006
The International energy Agency (IEA) is preparing a 2006 report on ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES.
When it is ready, and IF it is on the web, it may well influence our
deliberations.
February 20th 2006
Hisham Khatib's comment on
President Bush's energy plans
August 24th 2005
Meeting
of PMP under new Chairman: Professor Klaus Lackner.
Minutes
Draft
recommendation for discussion
August 23rd 2005
Report of Energy PMP
Richard Wilson's comment
on non proliferation put here
for convenience (Garwin's
also)
Erice schedule:
July 7th 2005
The founder of Greenpeace testified in US
congress (on April 2th 2005) supporting nuclear energy
July 6th 2005
June 14th
Joseph
Chahoud reminds us of the following thoughts of his written in 1999
that make the same
arguments we have been repeating recently.
The attached
document on electrification issues from Ken Davis (one time Deputy
Secretary of Energy in ERDA) may be of interest
February 21st
Hisham Khatib
sends an article by Malcomb Keay on "
CO2 Emissions Reduction: Time for a Reality Check? "
At 11 am today we mourn the fact that the
"war to end all wars" had come to an end but did not end all wars.
September 7th
2004
Hishab
Khatib's review
of Edwards-Kerry energy program
August 20th 2004
Reports of the August 19th meeting and other reports of the August 20-24th meeting are located here
Hisham
Khatib Energy in the light of global warming. Presentation on
August 20th
Carmen
De Figlio The costs of NOT including Nuclear and Carbon
Sequestration
Richard
Wilson Sustainable Nuclear Energy - Some reasons
for Optimism
Barkat
Electrification of Bangladesh
Kumar
Energy for Rural Areas: the Perspective of India
Jef
Ongena - The future of Fusion
August 13th 2004
Revised
plan for Thursday August 19th
meeting of
PMP (please make suggestions for modification) SEND IN YOUR IDEAS
Meet at 9.30 am
Approval of agenda
Discussion of Energy for Developing countries
Talks by:
9.45 Dr
Barkat (Bangladesh) Electrification of Bangladesh
10.30 Daniel Kammen (UC Berkeley) will not be
coming Renewables in developing countries will not be given
10.30 Dr Kumar (India) Energy
renewables in India
11.15 Discussion
of ways to help these developing countries (see Fulkerson, Levine et al
proposal)
___12.00
Discussion of afternoon's agenda on energy generally and in particular
resolution(s) for action that Professor Khatib or the Chairman will
raise to the whole group and that we hope Zichichi with support and
send upwards.
1 pm Lunch
____________________*************_____________
4.00 pm Energy in the context
of climate change
4.05 pm (a) a long term
one. What is the status of fusion? Jeff Ongena
prooses to bring us up to date. I suggest we try to keep that
short - 20 minutes.
4. 30 pm (b) raised by David
Bodansky (who cannot be there) and others: we should discuss
nuclear fission and its ability to meet global warming
concerns. Traditionally the Nobel Laureates who came to
Erice have all been strong nuclear power advocates, but the
antinuclear sentiment in the world has been such that it has been
boring to keep raising the same issues year after year. But I am
convinced that there have been enough recent changes that this year we
should reconsider the issues. I have been asked to
prepare a paper for a special issue of the "International Journal of
Global Energy Issues (IJGEI)" which I am entitling: Sustainable
Nuclear Energy - Some Reasons for Optimism.This will cover the same ground as papers I wrote 10
years ago, but with changed emphais because of the change in public
perception. I am in the middle of the draft but have posted
a set of power point slides I will present quickly (in 20 minutes or
less) at the PMP.
5.00 pm The US often sets the agenda. We should discuss the energy programs of the rival Presidential candidates
5.30 pm
(c) General
discussion of energy issues including
resolutions for Zichichi
6
pm Chairman of PMP for next year
6.15 pm Discussion of next years
program. We have discussed earlier that we should emphasize
carbon sequestration and meet jointly with the committee of the World
Energy Council at Erice in August for 2 days as our August
meeting. I suggest that if we confirm this that we
invite Dr Klaus Lackner (originally a high energy physicist) from
Columbia University to join us. He thinks about the
problems in ways of which Nino Zichichi would
approve. I will post here within a week some articles
on the subject.
6.45 pm Anyone else want to say anything? Please let me know
7 pm Any Other Business
before 7.30 adjourn
On August
20th or 21st Dr Hisham Khatib will present his
paper:
to the main group. Senator
Kerry and Mr Edwards have released a summary of their energy
proposal. It
is attached here. I note that it subsidizes renewables,
and coal (new combined cycle plants which cost a lot more) but no
mention of sequestration. It also continues and expands the
ethanol from corn program which is actually energy inefficient when the
whole fuel chain is considered (and is widely perceived as a subsidy
for the company Archer, Daniels, Midland ). I suggest
that we look at this on the afternoon of August 19th at the PMP
meeting, and suggest some resolutions for the whole group of
WFS. Although the US is only one country, it remains
the world's largest fuel user. Hisham
Khatib's comments upon another
version.
August 13th 2004
August 3rd
Bill Fulkerson sends an update of his and Levine's proposal for international aid to developing countries with emphasis on energy efficiency.
July 30th 2004
Comment by Joseph Chahoud
Dear Chairman,
I’m here getting back to
you only now since until a
few days ago I was so busy preparing, finishing and submitting to the
editor a paper on “Public Transport Policy and Measures that could
improve the air quality in major cities in the Mediterranean basin”.
Hence I sat scanning, in chronological order, the mass of
correspondence started last winter and early spring within many of the
members of the PMP Energy group. Navigation in such a bedlam has
revealed itself to be not an easy task, and I had a feeling of
bewilderment. But, not exactly all of sudden, I realized that we have,
this year, to face two major issues; namely global warming and climate
change, and energy for developing countries. This latter was our
priority option that was put forward 2 years ago by P.K. Iyengar and
others.
As for what concerns global warming and climate change
I would say that the problem, which is per se very complex in its
intrinsic nonlinearity, is still questionable and under debate within
the scientific community (see e.g. Nature, v 429 n 6992, just to
mention one of the most recent articles on the subject). Much have been
said during the plenary sessions last year, and I wonder if we could
put forward any further contribution, except from our own competency
calling for a reduction of GHG emissions in the processes of energy
production and consumption. So I think it would fair enough if we
address proposals in that direction, proposals that should be linked to
the second issue which is “energy for developing countries”.
This important issue, although not having been well
defined or understood at full, is certainly strictly linked to another
one which has a high ethical quality, namely that of “Poverty”. Two
billions of fellow citizens live on less than 2 $ a day and survive
burning dung or wood for fuel. 80% of them still have no access to
electricity. What is needed is an energy system based on renewable
energy and improving efficiency; to say it with Klaus Toepfer, a
combination commonly called “sustainable energy”, a multi-purpose tool
that can best help all countries in their sustainable development. Put
another way: development needs energy, sustainable development needs
sustainable energy. A tentative definition of sustainable energy could
be given by a few examples: sometimes it means increasing the system
efficiency of burning fossil fuels, such as coal, to generate
electricity squeezing the most efficiency of both supply and demand,
while reducing the emissions of pollutants such as carbon dioxide,
nitrous oxide and PMs. Sometimes it means a photovoltaic plant, whether
small or large. Sometimes it means a dam that can provide water and
electricity while protecting the river habitat. Sometimes it means a
wind farm feeding electricity into a national grid or into a mini grid.
Amazingly enough we find that the distribution of the
population over the globe is mostly concentrated in areas where there
is scarcity of “concentrated” primary energy resources; the few have a
lot and the many have a little (exceptions do exist and are well
known). In my view the soft distribution of the population over the
rural areas requires the exploitation of the so
